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You are here: Home / Blog / Market Trends

Two reasons why today’s housing market isn’t a bubble

June 27, 2022

Two Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market Isn’t a Bubble

You may be reading headlines and hearing talk about a potential housing bubble or a crash, but it’s important to understand that the data and expert opinions tell a different story. A recent survey from Pulsenomics asked over one hundred housing market experts and real estate economists if they believe the housing market is in a bubble. The results indicate most experts don’t think that’s the case (see graph below):

As the graph shows, a strong majority (60%) said the real estate market is not currently in a bubble. In the same survey, experts give the following reasons why this isn’t like 2008:

  • The recent growth in home prices is because of demographics and low inventory
  • Credit risks are low because underwriting and lending standards are sound

If you’re concerned a crash may be coming, here’s a deep dive into those two key factors that should help ease your concerns.

1. Low housing inventory is causing home prices to rise

The supply of homes available for sale needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued price appreciation.

As the graph below shows, there were too many homes for sale from 2007 to 2010 (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s still a shortage of inventory, which is causing ongoing home price appreciation (see graph below):

Inventory is nothing like the last time. Prices are rising because there’s a healthy demand for homeownership at the same time there’s a limited supply of homes for sale.

“The fundamentals driving house price growth in the U.S. remain intact,” explains Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American. “The demand for homes continues to exceed the supply of homes for sale, which is keeping house price growth high.”

2. Mortgage lending standards today are nothing like the last time

During the housing bubble, it was much easier to get a mortgage than it is today. Here’s a graph showing the mortgage volume issued to purchasers with a credit score less than 620 during the housing boom, and the subsequent volume in the years after:

This graph helps show one element of why mortgage standards are nothing like they were the last time. Purchasers who acquired a mortgage over the last decade are much more qualified than they were in the years leading up to the crash.

“Lenders are giving mortgages only to the most qualified borrowers. These buyers are less likely to wind up in foreclosure,” notes Realtor.com.

Bottom Line

A majority of experts agree, we’re not in a housing bubble. That’s because home price growth is backed by strong housing market fundamentals and lending standards are much tighter today. If you have questions, let’s connect to discuss why today’s housing market is nothing like 2008.

Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Home Prices, Supply & Demand

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"All I can about Russ Fortuno is that he did a excellent job in the complete process of selling my home. I would recommend him to other people. He knows local knowledge and his process expertise was very good.He respond to all my question and kept me informed of any new items that came up. He did a excellent job in the negotiations with the buyer agent. I couldn’t have picked a better agent to handle the sell of my property. "
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"Russ Fortuno is an exceptional real estate professional. He is personable, responsive and really knows the Green Valley real estate market. Additionally, Russ is a strong buyer’s advocate, good listener and business professional. He gave his honest opinion on places and did not push in any way. Living in Northern California, we required an agent who has a spectrum of knowledge about Green Valley as well as being able to navigate a transaction via long distance. Trust is key in all real estate business but really was crucial with our purchase. Russ showed us many properties prior to COVID, we ended up putting an offer on a property that we didn’t see until the inspection was completed. Having trust in Russ made our long distance home purchase possible. It was a little scary doing business this way but I can say that we are very happy with our condominium and Russ made such a purchase smooth and a relatively easy process. I whole heartedly recommend Russ to anyone seeking real estate in the Green Valley area, we will use Russ for all our future Green Valley real estate business."
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Russ Fortuno, Associate Broker

I'm a Southern Arizona native and year-round Green Valley resident. Whether you’re buying or selling a home in the Green Valley or Sahuarita area, you’ll experience unsurpassed service and professionalism at all stages of your real estate transaction. I welcome the opportunity to assist in your next home sale or purchase.
Meet Russ

Tierra Antigua Realty

18745 S. I-19 Frontage Rd., Ste. A105
Green Valley, AZ 85614
(520) 333-0446
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