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You are here: Home / Blog / Market Trends

What’s happening with home prices?

November 12, 2021

What’s happening with home prices?

Many people have questions about home prices right now. How much have prices risen over the past 12 months? What’s happening with home values right now? What’s projected for next year? Here’s a look at the answers to all three of these questions.

How much have home values appreciated over the last 12 months?

According to the latest Home Price Index from CoreLogic, home values have increased by 18.1% compared to this time last year. Additionally, prices have gone up at an accelerated pace for each of the last eight months (see graph below):

The increase in the rate of appreciation that’s shown by CoreLogic coincides with data from the other two main home price indices: the FHFA Home Price Index and the S&P Case Shiller Index.

The last year has shown tremendous home price appreciation, which is resulting in a major gain in wealth for homeowners through rising equity.

What’s happening with home prices right now?

All three indices mentioned above also show that while appreciation is in the high double digits right now, that price acceleration is beginning to level off (see graph below):

Year-over-year appreciation is still close to 20 percent, but it’s clearly plateauing at that rate. Many experts believe it will drop below 15 percent by the end of the year. Keep in mind, that doesn’t mean home values will depreciate. It means the rate of appreciation will slow, yet stay well above the 25-year average of 5.1 percent.

What about next year?

The recent surge in prices is the result of heavy buyer demand and a shortage of homes available for sale. Most experts believe that as more housing inventory comes to market (both new construction and existing homes), the supply and demand for housing will come more into balance. That balance will bring a lower rate of appreciation in 2022. Here’s a look at home price forecasts from six major entities, and they all project future appreciation:

  1. Fannie Mae
  2. Freddie Mac
  3. Mortgage Bankers Association
  4. Home Price Expectation Survey
  5. Zelman & Associates
  6. National Association of Realtors

While the projected rate of appreciation varies among the experts, due to things like supply chain challenges, virus variants, and more, it’s clear that home values will continue to appreciate next year.

Bottom Line: There have been historic levels of home price appreciation over the last year. That pace will slow as we finish 2021 and enter into 2022. Prices will still rise in value, just at a much more moderate pace, which is good news for the housing market.

Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Appreciation, Home Prices, Supply & Demand

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"From start to finish, Russ Fortuno was “a class act.” It started with his online Home Buyer’s Guide which was helpful to me, a first-time, out-of-state buyer. His new listing email notifications were timely and helped me get familiar with the Green Valley properties that fit my budget. Then when I was ready to buy, he represented me as a buyer’s agent. He professionally led me through the entire process with great knowledge of the available properties, as well as the subsequent offer and purchasing process. I found Russ to be very clear and direct. He went above and beyond what I expected. Even after the closing, he arranged the removal of some unwanted furniture and helped me identify cleaning and painting services in the area, something few other agents would do. I would highly recommend his services to anyone without reservation!"
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- J.N., Green Valley AZ
"Russ was impressive from the first moment we met him. We were looking at a property in a complex where he just happened to be previewing a unit. We asked if he was a real estate agent and he dropped what he was doing to show us some properties in the same complex. From that moment forward he was attentive, responsive and showed us that he knew the area and was helpful in looking for the right property for us. He got us through the process with ease and even went the extra mile in the offer process to make sure we made the best effort to secure our choice. Can’t say enough about him. Russ is truly a professional in the best sense of the word. "
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Russ Fortuno, Associate Broker

I'm a Southern Arizona native and year-round Green Valley resident. Whether you’re buying or selling a home in the Green Valley or Sahuarita area, you’ll experience unsurpassed service and professionalism at all stages of your real estate transaction. I welcome the opportunity to assist in your next home sale or purchase.
Meet Russ

Tierra Antigua Realty

18745 S. I-19 Frontage Rd., Ste. A105
Green Valley, AZ 85614
(520) 333-0446
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