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You are here: Home / Blog / Market Trends

What would a recession mean for the housing market?

August 16, 2022

What Would a Recession Mean for the Housing Market?

According to a recent survey from The Wall Street Journal, the percentage of economists who believe we’ll see a recession in the next 12 months is growing. When surveyed in July 2021, only 12 percent of economists consulted thought there’d be a recession by now. But this July, when polled, 49 percent believe we will see a recession in the coming 12 months.

And as more recession talk fills the air, one concern many people have is: Should I delay my homeownership plans if there’s a recession?

Here’s a look at historical data to show what happened in real estate during previous recessions to help prove why you shouldn’t be afraid of what a recession would mean for the housing market today.

A recession doesn’t mean falling home prices

To show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, it helps to turn to historical data. As the graph below illustrates, looking at the recessions going all the way back to 1980, home prices appreciated in four of the last six recessions. So, historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will fall.

A Recession Doesn’t Mean Falling Home Prices

Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 (the larger of the two red bars in the graph above) and think another recession would repeat what happened then. But this housing market isn’t about to crash. The fundamentals are very different today than they were in 2008. So, don’t assume we’re heading down the same path.

A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates

Research also helps paint the picture of how a recession could impact the cost of financing a home. As the chart below shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased.

A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates

Fortune explains that mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown:

“Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.”

And while history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from and find comfort in the historical data.

Bottom Line

There’s no doubt everyone remembers what happened in the housing market in 2008. But you don’t need to fear the word recession if you’re planning to buy or sell a home. According to historical data, in most recessions, home price gains have stayed strong, and mortgage rates have declined.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, let’s connect so you have expert advice on what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for your homeownership goals.

Filed Under: Market Trends Tagged With: Home Prices, Mortgage Interest Rates, Recession

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"Russ is the best agent on the planet, bar none! He came highly recommended to me and I suggest everyone should work with this stellar man. Russ is a fantastic negotiator. I don’t think another agent would have been able to seal this deal as well as Russ. He knows when to back off and when to apply pressure. Russ is always a gentleman and treats everyone with respect. He has a good sense of humor and although a bit dry, he really makes you chuckle when the chips are down. I came to Green Valley hoping to have an accepted offer on a house in one week. Russ did it! And, my house is very special. Plus I was on a tight budget. Russ has the patience of a saint and will answer a dumb question 4 times over if need be. His knowledge of local contractors and laws specific to your purchase is more than helpful. Russ has a great knowledge of the area in general and he works to find you just what it is you are looking for. Russ listens. Rare quality in a man, hu? And, he’s a dog lover! "
- R.H., Green Valley AZ
"Russ Fortuno is an exceptional real estate professional. He is personable, responsive and really knows the Green Valley real estate market. Additionally, Russ is a strong buyer’s advocate, good listener and business professional. He gave his honest opinion on places and did not push in any way. Living in Northern California, we required an agent who has a spectrum of knowledge about Green Valley as well as being able to navigate a transaction via long distance. Trust is key in all real estate business but really was crucial with our purchase. Russ showed us many properties prior to COVID, we ended up putting an offer on a property that we didn’t see until the inspection was completed. Having trust in Russ made our long distance home purchase possible. It was a little scary doing business this way but I can say that we are very happy with our condominium and Russ made such a purchase smooth and a relatively easy process. I whole heartedly recommend Russ to anyone seeking real estate in the Green Valley area, we will use Russ for all our future Green Valley real estate business."
- S.M., Redding CA
"As an out-of-state buyer, I needed to find the right person to be my local contact. And Russ was that person. He knows the area and had a lot of patience to show me around. He also did not push his opinion but was willing to give it to me when asked. The end result? With Russ’s help I have purchased the right home in the right area for the right price! I never could have done that without the expertise Russ brings to the process."
- D.H., Mogadore OH
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Russ Fortuno, Associate Broker

I'm a Southern Arizona native and year-round Green Valley resident. Whether you’re buying or selling a home in the Green Valley or Sahuarita area, you’ll experience unsurpassed service and professionalism at all stages of your real estate transaction. I welcome the opportunity to assist in your next home sale or purchase.
Meet Russ

Tierra Antigua Realty

18745 S. I-19 Frontage Rd., Ste. A105
Green Valley, AZ 85614
(520) 333-0446
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