Once you’re in the market to buy or sell a home, you’re going to notice every little thing you hear about the housing market. It could be on the TV, a headline or article online, friends, family, coworkers — everyone has an opinion on how the real estate market is doing.
And while there is plenty of data on the real estate market as a whole, that national data may or may not apply to where you’re trying to buy a home. So while it’s fine to keep your finger on the pulse of what’s going on nationally, when it comes to your experience buying a home it’s more important to understand the local market.
Like many other areas around the country, the real estate market is seeing some cooling due to rising inflation, interest rates and fears of a recession. That said, the housing market in Green Valley is still healthy and statistically a “sellers market” due to ongoing buyer demand and low inventory.
August 2022 Statistics
For the month of August 2022, the median days on market in Green Valley was just 7 days, unchanged from July. The median sales price rebounded to $329,000 after after a dip in July. The overall low inventory will continue to keep prices appreciating across most price points, just at a slower pace.
Inventory, the key indicator, moved up at 130 active listings as of September 1. Buyer activity has cooled slightly, partly due to seasonality, and partly due to rising interest rates. However, the “absorption rate” (supply of homes) continues to hover 30 days.
Generally, an absorption rate of less than 3-4 months indicates a sellers market; an absorption rate of 5-7 signals a balanced market, and 8-9 months or more indicates a buyers market. The absorption rate in Green Valley has not been higher than a 2 month supply of homes since May of 2020.
The median sold-to-list price, another key indicator, has held steady at 100 percent for more than a year, indicting little movement on price. As fall approaches, we are likely to see a deceleration in pricing as a result of interest rates and inflation. That doesn’t mean prices are coming down, that just means they are not appreciating as aggressively as they have over the past two (record breaking) years. But with continued low inventory and moderate demand, there is unlikely to be any significant change in the market over the next few months.
In fact, we historically see an increasing in listings and buyer activity following the Labor Day weekend, kicking off the fall selling season in Green Valley, particularly with buyers looking to purchase homes for the upcoming winter season.
Interest Rates
Meanwhile, mortgage interest rates fluctuated over the month of August, ending the month averaging 5.66% for most well qualified buyers.
Bottom line: Don’t base your mindset or decisions on what you casually hear from day to day, or read in the headlines. Regardless of interest rate increases in 2022 and tight inventory, home purchase affordability is still in a historically good place!
Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling in Green Valley, I’m happy to discuss current market conditions specific to the price range and neighborhood(s) you’re shopping or selling in.
